How will technology change people's home care in the next 20 years? A strategic foresight study.

The rapid expansion of home health care has raised many unresolved issues and will have far-reaching consequences that can only be overcome with a holistic approach to help build and use collective intelligence in a structured, systemic way to anticipate developments. In this frame, the set of issues covered by the human factors research field will significantly impact the safety, quality, and effectiveness of home health care. However, only with a gaze of strategic foresight will we be capable of exploring, anticipating, and shaping the future. A group of researchers from the Italian Society of Ergonomics and Human Factors (SIE) has developed a road map to help all the stakeholders involved in this process.

A Strategic Foresight study was conducted to define a preferred scenario of home care in the next 20 years. A hybrid survey method called Human-Centred Foresight was applied. The results achieved in the study show a possible scenario of home care that can define medium- and long-term goals from today until 2041.

Ground deformation reveals the scale-invariant conduit dynamics driving explosive basaltic eruptions.

The mild activity of basaltic volcanoes is punctuated by violent explosive eruptions that occur without obvious precursors. Modelling the source processes of these sudden blasts is challenging. Here, we use two decades of ground deformation (tilt) records from Stromboli volcano to shed light, with unprecedented detail, on the short-term (minute-scale) conduit processes that drive such violent volcanic eruptions. We find that explosive eruptions, with source parameters spanning seven orders of magnitude, all share a common pre-blast ground inflation trend. We explain this exponential inflation using a model in which pressure build-up is caused by the rapid expansion of volatile-rich magma rising from depth into a shallow (<400 m) resident magma conduit. We show that the duration and amplitude of this inflation trend scales with the eruption magnitude, indicating that the explosive dynamics obey the same (scale-invariant) conduit process. This scale-invariance of pre-explosion ground deformation may usher in a new era of short-term eruption forecasting.

Author Correction: Reliability of Total Grain-Size Distribution of Tephra Deposits.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Reliability of Total Grain-Size Distribution of Tephra Deposits.

Total Grain-Size Distribution (TGSD) of tephra deposits is key to the characterization of explosive volcanism, plume-dispersal modeling, and magmatic fragmentation studies. Nonetheless, various aspects that includes deposit exposure and data fitting make its determination extremely complex and affect its representativeness. In order to shed some lights on the reliability of derived TGSDs, we examine a large TGSD dataset in combination with a sensitivity analysis of sampling strategies. These analyses are based both on a well-studied tephra deposit and on synthetic deposits associated with a variety of initial eruptive and atmospheric conditions. Results demonstrate that TGSDs can be satisfactorily fitted by four distributions (lognormal, Rosin-Rammler, and power-law based either on the absolute or cumulative number of particles) that capture different distribution features. In particular, the Rosin-Rammler distribution best reproduces both the median and the tails of the TGSDs. The accuracy of reconstructed TGSDs is strongly controlled by the number and distribution of the sampling points. We conclude that TGSDs should be critically assessed based on dedicated sampling strategies and should be fitted by one of the mentioned theoretical distributions depending on the specific study objective (e.g., tephra-deposit characterization, physical description of explosive eruptions, tephra-dispersal modeling).

Geoarchaeological Evidence of Middle-Age Tsunamis at Stromboli and Consequences for the Tsunami Hazard in the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea.

Large-scale landslides at volcanic islands are one of the most dangerous geological phenomena, able to generate tsunamis whose effects can propagate far from the source. However, related deposits are scarcely preserved on-land in the geologic records, and are often difficult to be interpreted. Here we show the discovery of three unprecedented well-preserved tsunami deposits related to repeated flank collapses of the volcanic island of Stromboli (Southern Italy) occurred during the Late Middle Ages. Based on carbon datings, on stratigraphic, volcanological and archaeological evidence, we link the oldest, highest-magnitude investigated tsunami to the following rapid abandonment of the island which was inhabited at that time, contrary than previously thought. The destructive power of this event is also possibly related to a huge marine storm that devastated the ports of Naples in 1343 (200 km north of Stromboli) described by the famous writer Petrarch. The portrayed devastation can be potentially attributed to the arrival of multiple tsunami waves generated by a major landslide in Stromboli island, confirming the hypothetical hazard of these phenomena at a regional scale.

Pirfenidone and Nintedanib in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: Real-life experience in an Italian referral centre.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis has a median survival time after diagnosis of 2-5 years. The main goal of treating IPF is to stabilize or reduce the rate of disease progression. Nintedanib and Pirfenidone have been a breakthrough in the management of IPF. Here we evaluated the effectiveness of Pirfenidone and Nintedanib in a population of IPF patients diagnosed in the last 12 months at Florence ILD Referral Centre. METHODS: In the last 12 months, 82 IPF patients (66 male, mean age 78.3±23.8 years) were diagnosed and started antifibrotic therapy with Pirfenidone or Nintedanib. Their clinical and functional details were analyzed retrospectively at time 0 and after 6 and 12 months of therapy. RESULTS: The median age of the patients treated with Nintedanib was higher than that of the Pirfenidone group (p<0.0001). The most common symptoms at disease onset were exertional dyspnoea and dry cough with no differences between the two groups (p<0.05). All IPF patients manifested bibasal crackles at the time of diagnosis. No significant differences in FVC, FEV1, TLC and DLCO were found at time 0 or after 6 months between patients treated with Pirfenidone and Nintedanib (p>0.05). After 1 year, lung function test parameters of patients treated with Pirfenidone had remained stable from baseline. DISCUSSION: This study emphasizes that both antifibrotic drugs appeared to be a good therapeutic choice in terms of functional stabilization, also in older patients.

Gas exchange and breathing pattern in women with postmenopausal bone fragility.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the relationship between bone fragility and respiratory function. We hypothesized that women with osteoporosis or osteopenia, without cardio-pulmonary disease, have perturbations in the pattern of breathing and gas exchange. METHODS: In 44 women with bone fragility (BF, T score: < -1), and 20 anthropomorphically-matched control women (T score > -1) we compared pulmonary function tests, central respiratory drive (mouth occlusion pressure or P 0.1), pattern of breathing using optoelectronic plethysmograph and arterial blood gases at rest. RESULTS: Static pulmonary function was similar in BF subjects and controls. However, the arterial blood gas measurements differed significantly. The arterial pH was significantly higher in BF subjects than in controls (P < 0.001). The partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO2) and oxygen (PaO2) in arterial blood were significantly lower in BF subjects than controls (P < 0.001 and P = 0.009, respectively). The BF subjects had a shorter inspiratory fraction compared with controls (P = 0.036). Moreover, T-scores were significantly inversely correlated with the alveolar-arterial gradient of oxygen (r = -0.5; P = 0.0003) and the arterial pH (r = -0.4; P = 0.002), and positively correlated with arterial PaO2 (r = 0.3; P = 0.01) and PaCO2 (r = 0.4; P = 0.002) among all subjects. CONCLUSION: In the absence of known cardio-pulmonary disease, BF is associated with statistically significant perturbations in gas exchange and alterations in the pattern of breathing including shortening of the inspiratory time.

Non-tuberculous mycobacteria: epidemiological pattern in a reference laboratory and risk factors associated with pulmonary disease.

The diseases caused by non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM), in both AIDS and non-AIDS populations, are increasingly recognized worldwide. Although the American Thoracic Society published the guidelines for diagnosis of NTM pulmonary disease (NTM-PD), the diagnosis is still difficult. In the first part of the study, we collected data on NTM isolates in the Mycobacteriology Laboratory of Careggi Hospital (Florence, Italy) and analysed the epidemiological data of NTM isolates. Then, to analyse the risk factors associated to NTM-PD, we studied the presence of ATS/IDSA criteria for NTM-PD in patients who had at least one positive respiratory sample for NTM and were admitted to the Infectious Disease Unit and the Section of Respiratory Medicine. We selected 88 patients with available full clinical data and, according to ATS/IDSA criteria, classified 15 patients (17%) as NTM-PD cases and 73 as colonized patients (83%). When comparing colonized and NTM-PD patients we did not find significant differences of age, gender and comorbidity. We observed that Mycobacterium avium and M. intracellulare were statistically associated with NTM-PD (P = 0·001) whereas M. xenopi was statistically associated with colonization. Although the number of studied patients is limited, our study did not identify risk factors for NTM-PD that could help clinicians to discriminate between colonization and disease. We underline the need of close monitoring of NTM-infected patients until the diagnosis is reasonably excluded. Further larger prospective studies and new biological markers are needed to identify new useful tools for the diagnosis of NTM-PD.

Whole-lung volume and density in spirometrically-gated inspiratory and expiratory CT in systemic sclerosis: correlation with static volumes at pulmonary function tests.

BACKGROUND: Spiral low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) permits to measure whole-lung volume and density in a single breath-hold. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the agreement between static lung volumes measured with LDCT and pulmonary function test (PFT) and the correlation between the LDCT volumes and lung density in restrictive lung disease. DESIGN: Patients with Systemic Sclerosis (SSc) with (n = 24) and without (n = 16) pulmonary involvement on sequential thin-section CT and patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)(n = 29) underwent spirometrically-gated LDCT at 90% and 10% of vital capacity to measure inspiratory and expiratory lung volumes and mean lung attenuation (MLA). Total lung capacity and residual volume were measured the same day of CT. RESULTS: Inspiratory [95% limits of agreement (95% LoA)--43.8% and 39.2%] and expiratory (95% LoA -45.8% and 37.1%) lung volumes measured on LDCT and PFT showed poor agreement in SSc patients with pulmonary involvement, whereas they were in substantial agreement (inspiratory 95% LoA -14.1% and 16.1%; expiratory 95% LoA -13.5% and 23%) in SSc patients without pulmonary involvement and in inspiratory scans only (95% LoA -23.1% and 20.9%) of COPD patients. Inspiratory and expiratory LDCT volumes, MLA and their deltas differentiated both SSc patients with or without pulmonary involvement from COPD patients. LDCT lung volumes and density were not correlated in SSc patients with pulmonary involvement, whereas they did correlate in SSc without pulmonary involvement and in COPD patients. CONCLUSIONS: In restrictive lung disease due to SSc there is poor agreement between static lung volumes measured using LDCT and PFT and the relationship between volume and density values on CT is altered.

Is incidentally detected pulmonary embolism in cancer patients less severe? A case-control study.

Incidental pulmonary embolism (PE) in cancer patients is usually thought to be of mild degree. We investigated the severity of PE and evaluated the potential of raising the suspicion of PE in such patients. The computed tomography (CT) extent of PE was evaluated in 19 consecutive unsuspected and 19 randomly selected symptomatic patients. A clinical pattern useful for suspecting PE was also searched. On CT, number of embolized vessels, location of emboli, and simple instrumental findings were not different in the two groups. PE is not less severe in unsuspected cancer patients; moreover, PE may be clinically suspected in such patients.

Induced sputum in systemic sclerosis interstitial lung disease: comparison to healthy controls and bronchoalveolar lavage.

BACKGROUND: Induced sputum (IS) is a noninvasive tool, which can be used to collect cellular and soluble materials from lung airways. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if IS may be a useful and safe tool for the detection of airway inflammation in patients with interstitial lung disease (ILD) in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Sixty-eight patients with SSc and ILD as well as 18 healthy individuals (controls) were selected and submitted to IS examination. In 34 of 68 patients with SSc, bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) was also performed. Safety of IS was assessed by comparison of forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV(1)), FEV(1)/forced vital capacity ratio and peak expiratory flow before and after the IS procedure. Cell composition in samples collected by BAL and IS was correlated, and IS total and differential cell count in SSc patients and controls were compared. RESULTS: The total number of cells was significantly higher in IS samples of SSc patients compared to those of healthy controls. Mean percentage of neutrophils was also higher in SSc patients (41.79 +/- 23.89 vs. 27.37 +/- 17.90), as well as lymphocytes (17.42 +/- 19.70 vs. 3.13 +/- 2.28) and eosinophils (2.35 +/- 4.43 vs. 0.41 +/- 0.46). On the other hand, mean percentage of macrophages was higher in healthy individuals (69.10 +/- 19.15 vs. 36.96 +/- 20.68). In fluid recovered by BAL, the most frequent cells were macrophages (67.89% +/- 17.26), while neutrophils (14.77 +/- 17.18%) and lymphocytes (15.62 +/- 13.46%) were less frequent and eosinophils (1.66 +/- 2.08%) were rare. A similar pattern of cell composition was found in IS samples (41.15 +/- 21.67% of macrophages, 39.72 +/- 23.15% of neutrophils, 15.28 +/- 19.46% of lymphocytes and 2.56 +/- 5.03% of eosinophils). Strength of correlation between BAL and IS was significant for macrophages and neutrophils. After IS procedure was performed, improvement of FEV(1) (mean value before IS was 85.09 +/- 14.44 and 88.93 +/- 16.40 after IS) and FEV(1)/forced vital capacity (mean value before IS was 98.53 +/- 12.11 and 105.22 +/- 10.78 after IS) was observed. CONCLUSION: The IS method may allow a noninvasive assessment of cell composition in airway fluid and may contribute to the better understanding of upper/medium airway inflammation in SSc. Future studies are needed to verify whether IS can replace invasive procedures for the detection and monitoring of lung inflammation in SSc.

Outcomes for COPD pharmacological trials: from lung function to biomarkers.

The American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society jointly created a Task Force on "Outcomes for COPD pharmacological trials: from lung function to biomarkers" to inform the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease research community about the possible use and limitations of current outcomes and markers when evaluating the impact of a pharmacological therapy. Based on their review of the published literature, the following document has been prepared with individual sections that address specific outcomes and markers, and a final section that summarises their recommendations.

Cough. 3: chronic cough and gastro-oesophageal reflux.

The pathogenesis and clinical features of gastro-oesophageal reflux related cough are complex and the diagnostic tests available are of limited reliability. Treatment needs to be tailored to the specific needs of individual patients and other possible causes of chronic cough should be investigated. Treatment should only be considered to have failed when cough persists after administration of proton pump inhibitors at an adequate dosage for a sufficient length of time.

Imaging techniques in treatment algorithms of pulmonary embolism.

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is more often diagnosed post mortem by pathologists than in vivo by clinicians. The identification of practical diagnostic algorithms could reduce the rate of diagnoses first made at autopsy. The literature was reviewed for evidence-based approaches to PE diagnosis. Since the PE mortality rate greatly exceeds that of deep vein thrombosis (DVT), more emphasis was given to reports specifically dealing with PE diagnosis by objective pulmonary vascular imaging techniques than to those aimed at DVT detection. Several studies have shown that standardized clinical estimates can be effectively used to give a pretest probability to calculate, after appropriate objective testing, the post-test probability of PE. A prospective trial has shown that perfusion scanning, rather than ventilation/perfusion scanning, should be the imaging technique of first choice for the management of patients suspected of having PE. The clinical usefulness of spiral computed tomography has not as yet been firmly established. However, ongoing technological developments would probably render the technique accurate enough to replace conventional angiography. The authors propose a noninvasive diagnostic algorithm with high predictive accuracy (positive predictive value 96%; negative predictive value 98%) starting with a standardized assessment of clinical likelihood, followed by a perfusion scan and, eventually, spiral computed tomography in only a minority of patients (< 20%) with discordant clinical and scintigraphic findings.

[High resolution and spirometric synchronization computerized tomography in chronic obstructive bronchopneumopathy]. / Tomografia Computerizzata con alta risoluzione e sincronizzazione spirometrica nella broncopneumopatia cronica ostruttiva.

PURPOSE: To assess the feasibility of spirometrically gated HRCT in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and to correlate the density measures with the results of pulmonary function tests. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Pulmonary function tests and spirometrically gated HRCT were performed, on the same day, in 20 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Spirometrically gated HRCT scans at 90 and 10% of the patient's vital capacity were acquired, at three anatomical levels (carena, carena plus 5 cm, carena minus 5 cm). In each section, lung parenchyma was isolated from the other thoracic structures and from the main bronchi and a densitometric evaluation was applied to the regions of interest. A histogram showing the distribution of the pixel frequencies versus lung densities, the mean CT number and the pixel index at -910 HU (for scans acquired at 10% of the patient's vital capacity) and at -950 HU (for scans obtained at 90% of the patient's vital capacity) were obtained. Average acquisition time for the spirometrically gated HRCt was 15-20 minutes, average data processing time was 20 minutes. RESULTS: The mean CT number and the pixel index at -910 HU obtained at 10% of the patient's vital capacity correlated with the Tiffeneau index (r = 0.85; R = 0.78 respectively). The pixel index at -910 HU correlated also with the ratio of residual volume to total lung capacity (r = 0.65). The mean CT number and the pixel index obtained at 90% of the vital capacity correlated with the lung diffusion of carbon monoxide (r = 0.64 and r = 0.79 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In our study, we found good correlation between the densitometric values obtained with spirometrically gated HRCT and the respiratory function tests routinely employed to assess the presence and the gravity of obstructive pulmonary disease. A good reproducibility of the data is guaranteed by the spirometical gating which enables standardization of the lung acquisition volume, and by the semiautomatic contour tracing program combined with an automated densitometric evaluation. The main disadvantages of the technique are the relatively long acquisition and evaluation times. Spirometrically gated HRCT densitometry is a promising tool for longitudinal studies of diffuse lung disease (pulmonary emphysema and fibrosis).

Value of transthoracic echocardiography in the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism: results of a prospective study in unselected patients.

PURPOSE: Echocardiography is advocated by some as a useful diagnostic test for patients with suspected pulmonary embolism (PE), but its diagnostic accuracy is unknown. The present study was undertaken to determine prospectively the sensitivity and specificity of transthoracic echocardiography in the diagnosis of PE. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We examined 110 consecutive patients with suspected PE. The study protocol included assessment of clinical probability, echocardiography, and perfusion lung scanning. Pulmonary angiography was performed in all patients with abnormal scans. As echocardiographic criteria to diagnose acute PE, we used the presence of any two of the following: right ventricular (RV) hypokinesis, RV end-diastolic diameter >27 mm (without RV wall hypertrophy), or tricuspid regurgitation velocity >2.7 m/sec. Clinical estimates of PE served as pretest probabilities in calculating, after echocardiography, the posttest probabilities of PE. RESULTS: Pulmonary angiography confirmed PE in 43 (39%) of 110 patients. Echocardiographic diagnostic criteria for PE yielded a sensitivity of 56% and a specificity of 90%. For pretest probabilities of 10%, 50%, and 90%, the posttest probabilities of PE conditioned by a positive echocardiogram were 38%, 85%, and 98%, respectively. The posttest probabilities of PE conditioned by a negative echocardiogram were 5%, 33%, and 81%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In unselected patients with suspected PE, transthoracic echocardiography fails to identify some 50% of patients with angiographically proven PE. Although echocardiographic findings of RV strain, paired with a high clinical likelihood, support a diagnosis of PE, the transthoracic echocardiography has to have a better sensitivity to be used as a screening test to rule out PE.

Fog-induced respiratory responses are attenuated by nedocromil sodium in humans.

Fog inhalation induces cough and bronchoconstriction in patients with asthma, but only cough in normal subjects; whether it also influences the pattern of breathing is unclear. Nedocromil sodium (NCS) inhibits the cough response to inhalation of several pharmacological agents but its effects on fog-induced cough and changes in the pattern of breathing are unknown. We evaluated the effects of no drug, placebo, and 4- and 8-mg NCS administration on the cough threshold and changes in the pattern of breathing during fog inhalation in 14 healthy subjects. Measurements of tidal volume (VT), duration of inspiratory and expiratory times (TI and TE, respectively), total duration of the respiratory cycle (TT), mean inspiratory flow (VT/TI), duty cycle (TI/TT), respiratory frequency (f, 60/TT), and inspiratory minute ventilation (V I) were obtained by inductive plethysmography. Median cough threshold values were unaffected by placebo, but were increased (p < 0.01) by both NCS doses. In no-drug and placebo trials, inhalation of the threshold fog concentration caused increases in both VT/TI and V I (p always < 0.05) due to selective increases (p < 0.01) in VT. These changes were markedly attenuated by both NCS doses administration. Thus, fog induces coughing and increases in VT, VT/ TI, and V I in healthy subjects; NCS possesses antitussive effects and attenuates fog-induced changes in the pattern of breathing, possibly through inhibition of rapidly adapting "irritant" receptors.

Pulmonary involvement in juvenile dermatomyositis: a two-year longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence and features of asymptomatic pulmonary involvement in juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM). METHODS: Twelve JDM patients underwent pulmonary function tests at baseline, 12 and 24 months. Disease activity, duration, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) values and antinuclear antibody (ANA) titres were also evaluated. RESULTS: Five patients showed lung impairment at baseline and four at 12 and 24 months. Forced expiratory volume in 1s, forced vital capacity (FVC), carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (DLCO) and alveolar volume were the most frequently altered variables, indicating a restrictive pattern and impairment of diffusion. The prevalence and features of pulmonary alterations did not change during follow-up. FVC values were significantly lower in active JDM patients and were inversely related to LDH. DLCO values were significantly lower in ANA-positive patients. About half of the patients of this small case series of JDM had asymptomatic lung disease. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest that lung function should be evaluated at disease onset and regularly during follow-up, as pulmonary function tests can detect otherwise unpredictable pulmonary involvement.